Google admits the open web is in 'rapid decline'

For months, Google has insisted everything is fine. Web traffic isn't dying, AI isn't cannibalizing clicks, and the web is as vibrant as ever.

Then Google went into a courtroom and said the quiet part out loud.

In a recent legal filing spotted by Jason Kint and reported by Search Engine Roundtable, Google bluntly admitted that "the open web is already in rapid decline."

The courtroom reality check

The admission came ahead of a court trial deciding remedies for Google's advertising technology monopoly. The US Department of Justice has pushed to break up Google's ad business, but Google argued in the filing that doing so would be disastrous.

According to Google, a forced breakup would "only accelerate" the demise of the open web and harm publishers who depend on display advertising to survive. Google argued that market dynamics have shifted drastically since the lawsuit began in January 2023.

In Google's telling, AI is overhauling ad tech across the board, while formats outside the open web—specifically Connected TV and retail media networks—are blowing up. Competitors are pouring capital into those walled gardens, leaving open-web display ads in the dust.

Naturally, Google tried to walk this back once the filing made headlines. Spokesperson Jackie Berté told The Verge that the quote was cherry-picked, clarifying that the company meant open-web display advertising rather than the entire open web itself.

Two very different stories

Spin aside, the legal brief stands in stark contrast to the rosy picture Google executives have sold publicly.

On a Decoder podcast episode in May, CEO Sundar Pichai claimed Google is "definitely sending traffic to a wider range of sources and publishers" after rolling out AI search tools.

Nick Fox, Google's senior vice president of knowledge, echoed that optimism on the AI Inside podcast, asserting that "from our point of view, the web is thriving."

Even after Pew Research revealed that users click links less often when presented with AI Overviews, Google Search head Liz Reid insisted link clicks remained "relatively stable" and that billions of clicks still flow to external sites every day.

Yet digital publishers and independent site owners have consistently reported steep traffic drops following successive search algorithm overhauls and the rise of AI summaries.

Why it matters

Google was caught talking out of both sides of its mouth, and that tells you everything you need to know about where online publishing is headed.

To regulators, Google wants to look fragile. If the open web is dying and ad dollars are fleeing to Connected TV, breaking up Google's ad unit looks pointless or even counterproductive. It is a clever legal defense, but it completely undermines the reassurance Google has offered creators for over a year.

For independent site owners and digital publishers, we think this admission removes any lingering doubt. Google knows the traditional model of browsing websites and collecting display ad impressions is breaking down.

While Google executives continue telling creators that search is healthy, its own legal team is arguing that market forces have already moved on. Anyone depending on traditional web traffic needs to realize that the platform sending those visitors is already planning for a world where the open web takes a backseat.